Christie 2016?

After making the country wonder if he would announce his candidacy for the 2012 Presidential election or bow out the last few weeks, NJ Governor Chris Christie (R) has apparently decided he really meant what he said when he said he wouldn't run for President in 2012. Guess he decided it wasn't worth it to be the flavor of the week as the GOP continues to look for their true savior as the Governor, perhaps, begins to focus on 2016 (though as a NJ resident I'd be happy if he started focusing on getting rid of the party bosses and consolidating governmental services).

I think Gov. Christie would be a better candidate against President Obama in 2012 then any of the other GOP crop but he is probably too liberal for the Tea Party, despite his picking on teachers and essentially raising taxes on the middle class (me paying $100 for my son to play in the band is a tax increase by another name) while saving the rich from such horrors, to get the nomination this time around. Better to be the unknown potential for 2016 if the GOP loses the general election in 2012 over one of many losers who weren't conservative enough to get the nomination in 2012 I suppose.

While there is always a worry that you may miss your one chance (just ask all the Democrats who sat out 1992 when President Bush I's re-election looked certain), sometimes a politician's best move may be to sit an election out and let the extreme part of the party blow themselves up so you can come in and clean up the mess. The way the GOP is headed (and has been for many years) this may not be the worse of moves. If the Tea Party does blow up, Governor Christie will have four more years to get his political agenda aligned with the new political breeze and lose a few pounds to end the fat jokes (though I care more about a politicians abilities over his/her looks, many people are too shallow to acknowledge that the pretty, sweet talking politician is not the best leader -- and that is a bipartisan slap) as he saves the party from the Tea Party's science hating radical religious agenda.

Only a small part of the country is very liberal or very conservative. Most of us are in the middle, leaning one way or the other, potentially turned off/turned on by the extremes of one party. Governor Christie's best move may be to sit this one out, continue being a rising star in the GOP when the Tea Party implodes and hands Obama another 4 years, and get ready to welcome conservative spending leaning, but socially liberal science believing moderates, back to the big tent (no pun intended) in 2016.

Of course, the danger is that another moderate may be more appealing or some liberal Tea Party person may appear who both appeals to moderates in a general election but is still conservative enough to get the nomination or, if he gets the nomination, finds himself running against a more popular conservative Democrat governor in what I hope is improved economy (if the economy is still bad after 8 years of President Obama then forget about it for any Democratic candidate). A lot can happen in a few years. At the moment, Governor Christie is the interesting new kid on the block. In four years he may be Mitt Romney,who it seems has spent much of the last decade running for President.

One other concern: Does brash divisiveness work outside of NYC/NJ/Philadelphia? What plays well in Hoboken may not play well in Iowa, as Rudy Giuliani found out.